Bitcoin’s Next Bull Run Projected for Late 2026 Amid Shallow Business Cycle, Analyst Says
Business cycle expert Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets) predicts a delayed Bitcoin peak until late 2026, citing a ’short and shallow’ global economic cycle influenced by China’s slowdown and dollar strength. His analysis suggests the current cycle bottomed in early 2025 after fading through 2024, with implications for crypto markets.
Next Bitcoin Peak Delayed To Late 2026, Business Cycle Expert Warns
Business cycle analyst Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets) explains the current state of the global economy and its implications for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Tomas describes a ’short and shallow’ full business cycle that started in 2023, faded in 2024, and bottomed out in early 2025. He believes this cycle was partially masked by a weak Chinese economy and a rapidly strengthening dollar. Tomas’s analysis relies on four real-time measures of the global economy.
Bitcoin Falls Below $80K, Strategy Hits Pause on Bitcoin Buys
The corporate world’s biggest Bitcoin holder, Strategy, has stopped buying more Bitcoin as prices fell sharply. The company reported a massive $5.91 billion unrealized loss for Q1 2025 but softened by a $1.69 billion tax benefit. Strategy disclosed no Bitcoin purchases from March 31 to April 6, holding steady with its 528,185 BTC bought at an average price of $67,458 per coin. This decision aligns with Bitcoin’s recent price drops.
Bitcoin Open Interest Crashes 17% as Market Faces Pressure
Bitcoin is continuing to face downward pressure in the market, falling below $80,000 on Sunday for the first time since last year. Despite a 4.1% recovery in the past 24 hours, Bitcoin remains down 26% from its all-time high. Market sentiment is mixed, with investors considering various factors. Bitcoin’s open interest metric has shown cautious behavior among Leveraged traders, with a 17.8% drop in the past week.
How Donald Trump’s Tariffs Could Undermine US Bitcoin Mining Dominance
The tariffs announced by the Trump administration on April 2 are set to increase the cost of essential mining equipment, impacting imports and even the global hashrate. Jaran Mellerud, CEO of Hashlabs Mining, noted that new reciprocal tariffs would hike the cost of importing mining machines to the US by at least 24% compared to tariff-free countries. The US relies heavily on Bitcoin mining hardware produced in Southeast Asia, particularly by companies like Bitmain, MicroBT, and Canaan. A 25% tariff on machines imported from China has been in place for years, but manufacturers have circumvented it by shifting production to Southeast Asia.
Bitcoin ETF Exodus: $326 Million Outflows Mark Largest Single-Day Pullback Since March
On Tuesday, fund outflows from spot BTC ETFs totaled $326.27 million, marking four consecutive days of consistent outflows. This trend signals sustained bearish pressure and a lack of conviction from institutional players. The highest single-day outflow from spot BTC ETFs since March 10 indicates a notable shift in sentiment. This sustained capital flight suggests that large investors are de-risking their portfolios in response to macroeconomic pressures.
